Primary Test results KS2
All schools will now be aware that only 53% of year 6 pupils gained the expected standard in the new tests in maths, reading and writing combined. This is well below the new floor target of 65% and well below the 80% that reached the previous lead measure of L4+ maths reading and writing.
We have analysed data for nearly 100 schools so far and what is clear is the test outcomes vary widely. Some schools that have had historically strong attainment have dropped to 30-35% on the new combined measure and some who have struggled in the past have done unusually well, there seems little reason for this. The spread of school results is not unlike when the phonics check was first introduced before it settled into a more predictable pattern.
Our own evidence together with that of others suggest that at school level only about 30% of schools will be above this element of the new floor target. This will mean that for most schools the new VA progress measures (to be published in autumn although no date has yet been given) will be key to whether they are judged to be below floor standards. We are aware that some LAs and advisers are using predictive models for the new measure but we would warn against this until it is clear what the national data looks like. Otherwise wrong conclusions could be drawn.
The point at which the DfE decide to draw the line for “sufficient” progress will be interesting and is likely to be part political in nature!
The DfE is still yet to publish at which scale score point pupil are to be judged as working at a higher level in maths, reading and GPS. Early indications from the schools we are working with suggest the percentages of pupils at 115+ on all the tests are around 5% with roughly 20% pupils gaining 110+ in the tests. For our analysis we are using 110+ as a “higher” standard but this is a judgement we have taken without official guidance.
We are providing independent analysis of school’s EYFS, KS1 and KS2 data, if you want to know more please click here.